CONFIDENTIAL
NO: 396
FROM: SEOUL
DATE: November 16, 1954
RECD: November 16, 8:20 PM
SENT DEPT 575 RPTD INFO TOKYO 396, November 16, 6 PM
Tokyo pass CINCUNC and CAG.
Re Embassy telegram 554 and 564 repeated Tokyo 378 and 388.
President Rhee November 12 issued statement Korean Press only stressing need for passage constitutional amendments bill, especially referendum, on grounds will of people necessary overcome present delicate international situation resulting from demand for "compromise Korean unification formula" which President describes as contrary will of Korean people. Considering amount of unfavorable publicity given draft proposal on Geneva Conference in press and Assembly and statement by President mentioned Embassy telegram 564, Rhee can expect greater support for referendum now as it has been made more attractive in public eye. He may thus be hoping carry bill on basis referendum provision, opposition to which he labels as "unpatriotic" in view of many "international plots" against Korea.
Meanwhile anonymous letters favoring bill have begun to flood Assembly and public campaign against opposition continues. Before is acted on Assembly expected decide in plenary whether vote on amendments separately or as package. Apparently President continues favor former and Assembly latter.
All 137 LP Assemblymen probably cannot be counted on to vote for amendments and some opposition members may fovor them. Their success therefore will depend on additional methods used by government to gain required 136 votes. Marked ballot, direct purchase, or police measures are all possible. Effect of signing US-ROK minute (if actually done) difficult to estimate but on balance should work in government's favor by removing apprehension re deterioration US-ROK relations, particularly if government able play agreement up as ROK success. (Doubtful many informed Assemblymen greatly taken in by this, however).
BRIGGS
7 copies/mmt
